Continuing the torrent of recent developments in electronic chip manufacturing, two more major breakthroughs were announced yesterday.
IBM to Announce Breakthrough Caching Innovation at ISSCC
Carbon Nanotube-Based NVRAM In 2-3 Years?
In just a few years we'll all have the equivalent of 1997's ASCI Red supercomputer on our desktop and even our cell phones will "merely" have the power of a high end multi-core work station of today.
I think that we're getting close to crossing a threshold into an area where the continued doubling of computer performance every year is going to push us over a tipping point. What lies on the other side of this tipping point isn't entirely clear, but it could look something like the early chapters of Stross's "Accelerando".
Speaking of which, I'm planning on starting a series of posts where I'll try to make 5 year predictions for various fields of technology. 2012 sure feels like a long way out in terms of trying to make technology predictions. One thing I will try to do is to not think in a linear fashion when making my predictions. Instead I will adhere to the exponential rate of progress favored by Kurzweil and other "accelerating inteligence" advocates.
No comments:
Post a Comment